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Békéscsaba II vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Békéscsaba II
Békéscsaba II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
K. Zadori 75'
D. Constantinescu 63', 51', 22'
C. Fenyofalvi 55'
C. Konya 12'
2/12/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 21Békéscsaba Utánpótlás Központ centerpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Békéscsaba II36%
×Draw22%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Békéscsaba II
1.71
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Békéscsaba II
1.89
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Békéscsaba II
2.21
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Békéscsaba II+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Békéscsaba II ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Békéscsaba II or draw
58%
Békéscsaba II or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
78%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
64%

Winning margin

Békéscsaba II wins by 2+
18%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Békéscsaba II 1+ goals
82%
Békéscsaba II 2+ goals
51%
Békéscsaba II 3+ goals
24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
85%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
56%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Békéscsaba II (draw refunded)
46%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Békéscsaba II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.21 · 38 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Békéscsaba II attack 1.89 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Békéscsaba II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Békéscsaba II scores more
36%
level
22%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
42%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
C. Konya
22'
D. Constantinescu
51'
D. Constantinescu
55'
C. Fenyofalvi
63'
D. Constantinescu
75'
K. Zadori

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Békéscsaba II vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Hajdúszoboszlói SE beat Békéscsaba II 5-1 in NB III - Northeast on February 12, 2023.

Goals: C. Konya (12'), D. Constantinescu (22', 51', 63'), C. Fenyofalvi (55'), K. Zadori (75').

The match was played at Békéscsaba Utánpótlás Központ centerpálya in Békéscsaba.