Bekescsaba 1912 3–0 Kecskeméti TE II

Bekescsaba 1912

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kecskeméti TE II

8/30/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 5Kórház utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bekescsaba 191269%

×Draw18%

Kecskeméti TE II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bekescsaba 1912Expected goals in this matchKecskeméti TE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.99

Bekescsaba 1912

2.42

Kecskeméti TE II

0.99

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 144% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

3.20

creates per match

1.10

0.87

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bekescsaba 1912

3.20

Kecskeméti TE II

1.10

allows per match

Bekescsaba 1912

0.87

Kecskeméti TE II

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekescsaba 1912 ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bekescsaba 1912 or draw

86%

Bekescsaba 1912 or Kecskeméti TE II

82%

Draw or Kecskeméti TE II

31%

Winning margin

Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+

46%

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals

91%

Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals

69%

Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals

43%

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

63%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

26%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)

83%

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekescsaba 1912 at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 3.20 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.42

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bekescsaba 1912 scores more

69%

level

18%

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

14%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff