Béké Bembèrèkè 1–1 Réal Sport: Result & Stats

Béké Bembèrèkè

FT

1 – 1

Réal Sport

3/24/2021

Championnat National · Round 15Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Béké Bembèrèkè49%

×Draw32%

Réal Sport19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Béké BembèrèkèExpected goals in this matchRéal Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.60

Béké Bembèrèkè

1.14

Réal Sport

0.60

Béké Bembèrèkè creates 90% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 82 away

1.12

creates per match

0.46

0.75

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Béké Bembèrèkè

1.12

Réal Sport

0.46

allows per match

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.75

Réal Sport

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Béké Bembèrèkè ↓

Réal Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Béké Bembèrèkè or draw

81%

Béké Bembèrèkè or Réal Sport

68%

Draw or Réal Sport

51%

Winning margin

Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+

21%

Réal Sport wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals

68%

Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals

32%

Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals

11%

Réal Sport 1+ goals

45%

Réal Sport 2+ goals

12%

Réal Sport 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)

72%

Réal Sport (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Béké Bembèrèkè at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.75 · 95 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 1.12 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Béké Bembèrèkè scores more

49%

level

32%

Réal Sport scores more

19%

Béké Bembèrèkè at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Béké Bembèrèkè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff