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Béké Bembèrèkè vs JAC — Championnat National 2019

Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
FT
1 – 0
JAC
JAC
6/2/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 36Stade Municipal de Bembèrèkè (Bembèrèkè)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Béké Bembèrèkè49%
×Draw30%
JAC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Béké Bembèrèkè
1.23
JAC
0.68

Béké Bembèrèkè creates 81% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 46 away

creates per match

Béké Bembèrèkè
1.12
JAC
0.61

allows per match

Béké Bembèrèkè
0.75
JAC
1.33

finishing

Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par
JAC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Béké Bembèrèkè ↓

JAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Béké Bembèrèkè or draw
79%
Béké Bembèrèkè or JAC
70%
Draw or JAC
51%

Winning margin

Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
22%
JAC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
71%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
35%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
13%
JAC 1+ goals
49%
JAC 2+ goals
15%
JAC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
71%
JAC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Béké Bembèrèkè at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.75 · 93 matches

JAC away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 1.12 + JAC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

JAC attack 0.61 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
49%
level
30%
JAC scores more
21%

Béké Bembèrèkè at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Béké Bembèrèkè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Béké Bembèrèkè 1–0 JAC

Béké Bembèrèkè beat JAC 1-0 in Championnat National on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bembèrèkè (Bembèrèkè).