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Bekaa vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2025

Bekaa
Bekaa
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
Mohammad El Jamal 54'
Hasan Jaafar 82'
Sajed Amhaz 74'
Mahmoud Sbleni 55', 51'
Hassan Salameh 2'
7/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 15Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bekaa22%
×Draw26%
Shabab Al Sahel51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bekaa
0.88
Shabab Al Sahel
1.48

Shabab Al Sahel creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

creates per match

Bekaa
0.53
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Bekaa
1.76
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Bekaa+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekaa ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bekaa or draw
49%
Bekaa or Shabab Al Sahel
74%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
78%

Winning margin

Bekaa wins by 2+
7%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bekaa 1+ goals
59%
Bekaa 2+ goals
22%
Bekaa 3+ goals
6%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
77%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
43%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bekaa (draw refunded)
30%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekaa at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekaa attack 0.53 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.88

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Bekaa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bekaa scores more
22%
level
26%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
51%

Shabab Al Sahel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Hassan Salameh
51'
Mahmoud Sbleni
54'
Mohammad El Jamal
55'
Mahmoud Sbleni
74'
Sajed Amhaz
82'
Hasan Jaafar
Bekaa
Shabab
Derar Al Radawi
Manager: Derar Al Radawi
Said Iskandar
Manager: Said Iskandar

Match Recap: Bekaa vs Shabab Al Sahel

Shabab Al Sahel beat Bekaa 5-1 in Premier League on July 5, 2025.

Goals: Hassan Salameh (2'), Mahmoud Sbleni (51', 55'), Mohammad El Jamal (54'), Sajed Amhaz (74'), Hasan Jaafar (82').

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.