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Bekaa vs Racing — Premier League 2025

Bekaa
Bekaa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing
Racing
M. Wade 56'
6/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 13Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bekaa38%
×Draw26%
Racing35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bekaa
1.33
Racing
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bekaa
0.53
Racing
0.77

allows per match

Bekaa
1.76
Racing
2.14

finishing

Bekaa+0.00on par
Racing+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekaa ↓

Racing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bekaa or draw
65%
Bekaa or Racing
74%
Draw or Racing
62%

Winning margin

Bekaa wins by 2+
17%
Racing wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bekaa 1+ goals
74%
Bekaa 2+ goals
38%
Bekaa 3+ goals
15%
Racing 1+ goals
72%
Racing 2+ goals
36%
Racing 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bekaa (draw refunded)
52%
Racing (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekaa at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Racing away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.14 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekaa attack 0.53 + Racing defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Racing attack 0.77 + Bekaa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bekaa scores more
38%
level
26%
Racing scores more
35%

Bekaa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bekaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
M. Wade
Bekaa
Racing
Derar Al Radawi
Manager: Derar Al Radawi
Hussein Tahan
Manager: Hussein Tahan

Premier League: Bekaa 1–0 Racing

Bekaa beat Racing 1-0 in Premier League on June 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Wade (56').

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Bayrūt (Beirut).