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Bekaa vs Bourj — Premier League 2025

Bekaa
Bekaa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bourj
Bourj
S. Ibrahima 87'
6/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 9Baalbek Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bekaa22%
×Draw28%
Bourj51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bekaa
0.80
Bourj
1.39

Bourj creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bekaa
0.53
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Bekaa
1.76
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Bekaa+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekaa ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bekaa or draw
49%
Bekaa or Bourj
72%
Draw or Bourj
78%

Winning margin

Bekaa wins by 2+
7%
Bourj wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bekaa 1+ goals
55%
Bekaa 2+ goals
19%
Bekaa 3+ goals
5%
Bourj 1+ goals
75%
Bourj 2+ goals
40%
Bourj 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bekaa (draw refunded)
30%
Bourj (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekaa at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekaa attack 0.53 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.80

Bourj attack 1.02 + Bekaa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bekaa scores more
22%
level
28%
Bourj scores more
51%

Bourj at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
S. Ibrahima
Bekaa
Bourj
Derar Al Radawi
Manager: Derar Al Radawi
Foad Hijazi
Manager: Foad Hijazi

Match Recap: Bekaa vs Bourj

Bourj beat Bekaa 1-0 in Premier League on June 1, 2025.

Goals: S. Ibrahima (87').

The match was played at Baalbek Municipal Stadium in Baalbek.