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Beitar vs Staiceles Bebri — Cup 2020

Beitar
Beitar
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Staiceles Bebri
Staiceles Bebri
5/22/2022CupCup · 1st RoundAcadem FC stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar49%
×Draw17%
Staiceles Bebri33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar
3.37
Staiceles Bebri
2.80

Beitar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beitar
3.33
Staiceles Bebri
1.60

allows per match

Beitar
4.00
Staiceles Bebri
3.40

finishing

Beitar+0.00on par
Staiceles Bebri+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar ↓

Staiceles Bebri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Beitar or draw
67%
Beitar or Staiceles Bebri
83%
Draw or Staiceles Bebri
51%

Winning margin

Beitar wins by 2+
32%
Staiceles Bebri wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Beitar 1+ goals
96%
Beitar 2+ goals
84%
Beitar 3+ goals
63%
Staiceles Bebri 1+ goals
94%
Staiceles Bebri 2+ goals
76%
Staiceles Bebri 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Beitar (draw refunded)
60%
Staiceles Bebri (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
88%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar at home — creates 3.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Staiceles Bebri away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar attack 3.33 + Staiceles Bebri defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.37

Staiceles Bebri attack 1.60 + Beitar defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Beitar scores more
49%
level
17%
Staiceles Bebri scores more
33%

Beitar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beitar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beitar vs Staiceles Bebri

Beitar beat Staiceles Bebri 4-1 in Cup on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Academ FC stadionā in Rīga.