Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla vs Maccabi Herzliya — State Cup 2019

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
FT
3 – 0
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
M. Shlaata 61'
R. Hanzis 24', 21' (pen)
12/15/2020State CupState Cup · 3rd RoundNes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla61%
×Draw20%
Maccabi Herzliya19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
2.17
Maccabi Herzliya
1.14

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla creates 90% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
2.00
Maccabi Herzliya
0.67

allows per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
2.33

finishing

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par
Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or draw
81%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or Maccabi Herzliya
80%
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya
39%

Winning margin

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+
38%
Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals
89%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals
64%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals
36%
Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
32%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)
76%
Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 2.00 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Maccabi Herzliya attack 0.67 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more
61%
level
20%
Maccabi Herzliya scores more
19%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
R. HanzisPenalty
24'
R. Hanzis
61'
M. Shlaata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3–0 Maccabi Herzliya

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla beat Maccabi Herzliya 3-0 in State Cup on December 15, 2020.

Goals: R. Hanzis (21' pen, 24'), M. Shlaata (61').

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.