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Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — State Cup 2019

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2/21/2021State CupState Cup · 4th RoundNes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla36%
×Draw23%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
2.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.83

allows per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.60
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.17

finishing

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or draw
59%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
77%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
64%

Winning margin

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+
17%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals
79%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals
47%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals
21%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
82%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
51%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)
46%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 2.00 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.83 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more
36%
level
23%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
41%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2-0 in State Cup on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.