Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2–4 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

2 – 4

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

9/6/2024

State Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Holon Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla42%

×Draw22%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar Tel Aviv RamlaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Mahane Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.80

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.94

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.60

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

2.00

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

2.00

allows per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.60

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla ↓

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or draw

64%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

78%

Draw or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

58%

Winning margin

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals

86%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals

58%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals

30%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals

83%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals

54%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)

53%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 2.00 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 2.00 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more

42%

level

22%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more

36%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff