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Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — State Cup 2019

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
12/19/2021State CupState Cup · 8th RoundNes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla28%
×Draw22%
Hapoel Beer Sheva50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.43
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.96

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
2.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.31

allows per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.60
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.85

finishing

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or draw
50%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or Hapoel Beer Sheva
78%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
72%

Winning margin

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+
13%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals
76%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals
42%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
86%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
58%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)
36%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 2.00 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 2.31 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more
28%
level
22%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
50%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3-0 in State Cup on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.