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Beitar Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Lod — State Cup 2019

Beitar Ramat Gan
Beitar Ramat Gan
AET
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Lod
Hapoel Lod
9/2/2022State CupState Cup · 2nd Round (Liga Bet)Ramat Gan Artificial Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beitar Ramat Gan65%
×Draw16%
Hapoel Lod19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Ramat Gan
3.00
Hapoel Lod
1.60

Beitar Ramat Gan creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beitar Ramat Gan
4.00
Hapoel Lod
1.40

allows per match

Beitar Ramat Gan
1.80
Hapoel Lod
2.00

finishing

Beitar Ramat Gan+0.00on par
Hapoel Lod+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Ramat Gan ↓

Hapoel Lod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Beitar Ramat Gan or draw
81%
Beitar Ramat Gan or Hapoel Lod
84%
Draw or Hapoel Lod
35%

Winning margin

Beitar Ramat Gan wins by 2+
45%
Hapoel Lod wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beitar Ramat Gan 1+ goals
95%
Beitar Ramat Gan 2+ goals
79%
Beitar Ramat Gan 3+ goals
56%
Hapoel Lod 1+ goals
80%
Hapoel Lod 2+ goals
47%
Hapoel Lod 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Beitar Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
78%
Hapoel Lod (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Ramat Gan at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Hapoel Lod away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Ramat Gan attack 4.00 + Hapoel Lod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Hapoel Lod attack 1.40 + Beitar Ramat Gan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Beitar Ramat Gan scores more
65%
level
16%
Hapoel Lod scores more
19%

Beitar Ramat Gan at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Beitar Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beitar Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Lod

Beitar Ramat Gan beat Hapoel Lod 1-0 in State Cup on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Ramat Gan Artificial Pitch in Ramat Gan.