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Beitar Ramat Gan vs Beitar Kfar Saba — State Cup 2019

Beitar Ramat Gan
Beitar Ramat Gan
FT
0 – 2
Beitar Kfar Saba
Beitar Kfar Saba
9/6/2024State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Ramat Gan Artificial Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar Ramat Gan36%
×Draw20%
Beitar Kfar Saba44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Ramat Gan
2.00
Beitar Kfar Saba
2.23

Beitar Kfar Saba creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Beitar Ramat Gan
4.00
Beitar Kfar Saba
2.67

allows per match

Beitar Ramat Gan
1.80
Beitar Kfar Saba
0.00

finishing

Beitar Ramat Gan+0.00on par
Beitar Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Ramat Gan ↓

Beitar Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Beitar Ramat Gan or draw
56%
Beitar Ramat Gan or Beitar Kfar Saba
80%
Draw or Beitar Kfar Saba
64%

Winning margin

Beitar Ramat Gan wins by 2+
19%
Beitar Kfar Saba wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Beitar Ramat Gan 1+ goals
86%
Beitar Ramat Gan 2+ goals
59%
Beitar Ramat Gan 3+ goals
32%
Beitar Kfar Saba 1+ goals
89%
Beitar Kfar Saba 2+ goals
65%
Beitar Kfar Saba 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Beitar Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
45%
Beitar Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Ramat Gan at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Beitar Kfar Saba away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Ramat Gan attack 4.00 + Beitar Kfar Saba defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Beitar Kfar Saba attack 2.67 + Beitar Ramat Gan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beitar Ramat Gan scores more
36%
level
20%
Beitar Kfar Saba scores more
44%

Beitar Kfar Saba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beitar Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Beitar Ramat Gan 0–2 Beitar Kfar Saba

Beitar Kfar Saba beat Beitar Ramat Gan 2-0 in State Cup on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Ramat Gan Artificial Pitch in Ramat Gan.