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Beitar Petah Tikva vs Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim — State Cup 2019

Beitar Petah Tikva
Beitar Petah Tikva
FT
3 – 1
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim
9/6/2024State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Petah Tikva Training Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar Petah Tikva41%
×Draw20%
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Petah Tikva
2.20
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim
2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beitar Petah Tikva
1.00
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim
1.60

allows per match

Beitar Petah Tikva
2.67
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim
3.40

finishing

Beitar Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Petah Tikva ↓

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Beitar Petah Tikva or draw
61%
Beitar Petah Tikva or Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim
80%
Draw or Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim
59%

Winning margin

Beitar Petah Tikva wins by 2+
23%
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Beitar Petah Tikva 1+ goals
89%
Beitar Petah Tikva 2+ goals
64%
Beitar Petah Tikva 3+ goals
37%
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 1+ goals
88%
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 2+ goals
63%
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Beitar Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
52%
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Petah Tikva attack 1.00 + Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim attack 1.60 + Beitar Petah Tikva defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beitar Petah Tikva scores more
41%
level
20%
Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim scores more
39%

Beitar Petah Tikva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beitar Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beitar Petah Tikva vs Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim

Beitar Petah Tikva beat Bnei Jaffa Ortodoxim 3-1 in State Cup on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Petah Tikva Training Field 2 in Petach-Tikva.