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Beitar Nahariya vs Kiryat Yam SC — State Cup 2019

Beitar Nahariya
Beitar Nahariya
FT
1 – 10
Kiryat Yam SC
Kiryat Yam SC
9/5/2022State CupState Cup · 2nd Round (Liga Bet)Kiryat Haim Beit Nagler Mizrahi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beitar Nahariya15%
×Draw15%
Kiryat Yam SC70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Nahariya
1.52
Kiryat Yam SC
3.25

Kiryat Yam SC creates 114% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beitar Nahariya
2.25
Kiryat Yam SC
4.00

allows per match

Beitar Nahariya
2.50
Kiryat Yam SC
0.80

finishing

Beitar Nahariya+0.00on par
Kiryat Yam SC+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Nahariya ↓

Kiryat Yam SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Beitar Nahariya or draw
30%
Beitar Nahariya or Kiryat Yam SC
85%
Draw or Kiryat Yam SC
85%

Winning margin

Beitar Nahariya wins by 2+
6%
Kiryat Yam SC wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Beitar Nahariya 1+ goals
78%
Beitar Nahariya 2+ goals
45%
Beitar Nahariya 3+ goals
20%
Kiryat Yam SC 1+ goals
96%
Kiryat Yam SC 2+ goals
83%
Kiryat Yam SC 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Beitar Nahariya (draw refunded)
18%
Kiryat Yam SC (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Nahariya at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Kiryat Yam SC away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Nahariya attack 2.25 + Kiryat Yam SC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kiryat Yam SC attack 4.00 + Beitar Nahariya defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Beitar Nahariya scores more
15%
level
15%
Kiryat Yam SC scores more
70%

Kiryat Yam SC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kiryat Yam SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Beitar Nahariya 1–10 Kiryat Yam SC

Kiryat Yam SC beat Beitar Nahariya 10-1 in State Cup on September 5, 2022.

The match was played at Kiryat Haim Beit Nagler Mizrahi in Haifa.