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Beitar Nahariya vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel — State Cup 2019

Beitar Nahariya
Beitar Nahariya
FT
4 – 2
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
9/18/2023State CupState Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Nahariya synthetic pitch 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beitar Nahariya50%
×Draw19%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Nahariya
2.63
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
2.05

Beitar Nahariya creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beitar Nahariya
2.25
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
1.60

allows per match

Beitar Nahariya
2.50
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
3.00

finishing

Beitar Nahariya+0.00on par
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Nahariya ↓

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Beitar Nahariya or draw
69%
Beitar Nahariya or Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
81%
Draw or Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
50%

Winning margin

Beitar Nahariya wins by 2+
32%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beitar Nahariya 1+ goals
93%
Beitar Nahariya 2+ goals
73%
Beitar Nahariya 3+ goals
48%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1+ goals
87%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2+ goals
61%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Beitar Nahariya (draw refunded)
62%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Nahariya at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Nahariya attack 2.25 + Hapoel Ironi Karmiel defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel attack 1.60 + Beitar Nahariya defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beitar Nahariya scores more
50%
level
19%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel scores more
31%

Beitar Nahariya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beitar Nahariya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Beitar Nahariya 4–2 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Beitar Nahariya beat Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 4-2 in State Cup on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Nahariya synthetic pitch 3 in Nahariyya.