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Beitar Nahariya vs Dimona — State Cup 2019

Beitar Nahariya
Beitar Nahariya
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Dimona
Dimona
1/9/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundNahariya synthetic pitch 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beitar Nahariya34%
×Draw21%
Dimona46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Nahariya
1.81
Dimona
2.13

Dimona creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Beitar Nahariya
2.25
Dimona
1.75

allows per match

Beitar Nahariya
2.50
Dimona
1.38

finishing

Beitar Nahariya+0.00on par
Dimona+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Nahariya ↓

Dimona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Beitar Nahariya or draw
54%
Beitar Nahariya or Dimona
79%
Draw or Dimona
66%

Winning margin

Beitar Nahariya wins by 2+
17%
Dimona wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Beitar Nahariya 1+ goals
84%
Beitar Nahariya 2+ goals
54%
Beitar Nahariya 3+ goals
27%
Dimona 1+ goals
88%
Dimona 2+ goals
63%
Dimona 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Beitar Nahariya (draw refunded)
42%
Dimona (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Nahariya at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Dimona away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Nahariya attack 2.25 + Dimona defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dimona attack 1.75 + Beitar Nahariya defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beitar Nahariya scores more
34%
level
21%
Dimona scores more
46%

Dimona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dimona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Beitar Nahariya 1–6 Dimona

Dimona beat Beitar Nahariya 6-1 in State Cup on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Nahariya synthetic pitch 3 in Nahariyya.