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Beitar Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit — State Cup 2019

Beitar Kfar Saba
Beitar Kfar Saba
FT
0 – 4
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
10/29/2019State CupState Cup · 7th RoundLevita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar Kfar Saba3%
×Draw11%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Kfar Saba
0.33
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
2.67

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 709% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Beitar Kfar Saba
0.33
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
2.00

allows per match

Beitar Kfar Saba
3.33
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
0.33

finishing

Beitar Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–114%
0–218%
0–316%
0–411%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (18%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beitar Kfar Saba or draw
14%
Beitar Kfar Saba or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
89%
Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
97%

Winning margin

Beitar Kfar Saba wins by 2+
0%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Beitar Kfar Saba 1+ goals
28%
Beitar Kfar Saba 2+ goals
4%
Beitar Kfar Saba 3+ goals
0%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
93%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
74%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Beitar Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
3%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Kfar Saba at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Kfar Saba attack 0.33 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 2.00 + Beitar Kfar Saba defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Beitar Kfar Saba scores more
3%
level
11%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
86%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beitar Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Hapoel Nazareth Illit beat Beitar Kfar Saba 4-0 in State Cup on October 29, 2019.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.