Beitar Kfar Saba 0–4 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Beitar Kfar Saba

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

12/26/2023

State Cup · 6th RoundKaplan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar Kfar Saba14%

×Draw16%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar Kfar SabaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Mahane Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.67

Beitar Kfar Saba

1.10

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

2.67

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda creates 143% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.33

creates per match

2.00

3.33

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Beitar Kfar Saba

0.33

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

2.00

allows per match

Beitar Kfar Saba

3.33

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Beitar Kfar Saba or draw

30%

Beitar Kfar Saba or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

84%

Draw or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

86%

Winning margin

Beitar Kfar Saba wins by 2+

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Beitar Kfar Saba 1+ goals

67%

Beitar Kfar Saba 2+ goals

30%

Beitar Kfar Saba 3+ goals

10%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals

93%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals

74%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Beitar Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

16%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beitar Kfar Saba at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Kfar Saba attack 0.33 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 2.00 + Beitar Kfar Saba defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Beitar Kfar Saba scores more

14%

level

16%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more

70%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff