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Beitar Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Azor — State Cup 2019

Beitar Kfar Saba
Beitar Kfar Saba
FT
1 – 2
Hapoel Azor
Hapoel Azor
9/20/2022State CupState Cup · 6th RoundLevita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar Kfar Saba10%
×Draw17%
Hapoel Azor73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Kfar Saba
0.75
Hapoel Azor
2.33

Hapoel Azor creates 211% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Beitar Kfar Saba
0.33
Hapoel Azor
1.33

allows per match

Beitar Kfar Saba
3.33
Hapoel Azor
1.17

finishing

Beitar Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Hapoel Azor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Azor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beitar Kfar Saba or draw
27%
Beitar Kfar Saba or Hapoel Azor
83%
Draw or Hapoel Azor
90%

Winning margin

Beitar Kfar Saba wins by 2+
3%
Hapoel Azor wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Beitar Kfar Saba 1+ goals
53%
Beitar Kfar Saba 2+ goals
17%
Beitar Kfar Saba 3+ goals
4%
Hapoel Azor 1+ goals
90%
Hapoel Azor 2+ goals
67%
Hapoel Azor 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Beitar Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
13%
Hapoel Azor (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Kfar Saba at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Hapoel Azor away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Kfar Saba attack 0.33 + Hapoel Azor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Hapoel Azor attack 1.33 + Beitar Kfar Saba defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Beitar Kfar Saba scores more
10%
level
17%
Hapoel Azor scores more
73%

Hapoel Azor at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hapoel Azor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Beitar Kfar Saba 1–2 Hapoel Azor

Hapoel Azor beat Beitar Kfar Saba 2-1 in State Cup on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.