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Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1/30/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 19Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem48%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Petah Tikva28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Jerusalem
1.63
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.19

Beitar Jerusalem creates 37% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 35 away

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.40
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.09

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.28
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.86

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par
Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw
72%
Beitar Jerusalem or Hapoel Petah Tikva
75%
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva
52%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
25%
Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
80%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
48%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
22%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
63%
Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.40 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more
48%
level
25%
Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
28%

Beitar Jerusalem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Beitar Jerusalem 2–2 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Beitar Jerusalem and Hapoel Petah Tikva drew 2-2 in Ligat Ha'al on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.