Beitar Haifa 1–4 Maccabi Achva Fureidis

Beitar Haifa

1 – 4

Maccabi Achva Fureidis

8/30/2022

State Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Kiryat Haim Beit Nagler Mizrahi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beitar Haifa13%

×Draw14%

Maccabi Achva Fureidis72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar HaifaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Achva Fureidis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

3.17

Beitar Haifa

1.33

Maccabi Achva Fureidis

3.17

Maccabi Achva Fureidis creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.67

4.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Beitar Haifa

0.67

Maccabi Achva Fureidis

1.67

allows per match

Beitar Haifa

4.67

Maccabi Achva Fureidis

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Haifa+0.00on par

Maccabi Achva Fureidis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Haifa ↓

Maccabi Achva Fureidis →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Beitar Haifa or draw

28%

Beitar Haifa or Maccabi Achva Fureidis

86%

Draw or Maccabi Achva Fureidis

87%

Winning margin

Beitar Haifa wins by 2+

Maccabi Achva Fureidis wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Beitar Haifa 1+ goals

74%

Beitar Haifa 2+ goals

38%

Beitar Haifa 3+ goals

15%

Maccabi Achva Fureidis 1+ goals

96%

Maccabi Achva Fureidis 2+ goals

82%

Maccabi Achva Fureidis 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Beitar Haifa (draw refunded)

15%

Maccabi Achva Fureidis (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beitar Haifa at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Maccabi Achva Fureidis away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Haifa attack 0.67 + Maccabi Achva Fureidis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Maccabi Achva Fureidis attack 1.67 + Beitar Haifa defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Beitar Haifa scores more

13%

level

14%

Maccabi Achva Fureidis scores more

72%

Maccabi Achva Fureidis at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Maccabi Achva Fureidis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff