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Beira-Mar vs Pevidem — Taça de Portugal 2018

Beira-Mar
Beira-Mar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pevidem
Pevidem
11/9/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal de Aveiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Beira-Mar45%
×Draw25%
Pevidem30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beira-Mar
1.58
Pevidem
1.25

Beira-Mar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Beira-Mar
2.17
Pevidem
1.50

allows per match

Beira-Mar
1.00
Pevidem
1.00

finishing

Beira-Mar+0.00on par
Pevidem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beira-Mar ↓

Pevidem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beira-Mar or draw
70%
Beira-Mar or Pevidem
75%
Draw or Pevidem
55%

Winning margin

Beira-Mar wins by 2+
23%
Pevidem wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Beira-Mar 1+ goals
79%
Beira-Mar 2+ goals
47%
Beira-Mar 3+ goals
21%
Pevidem 1+ goals
71%
Pevidem 2+ goals
36%
Pevidem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beira-Mar (draw refunded)
60%
Pevidem (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beira-Mar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Pevidem away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beira-Mar attack 2.17 + Pevidem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pevidem attack 1.50 + Beira-Mar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beira-Mar scores more
45%
level
25%
Pevidem scores more
30%

Beira-Mar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beira-Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Beira-Mar 3–2 Pevidem

Beira-Mar beat Pevidem 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aveiro in Aveiro.