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Beira-Mar vs Oliveira Hospital — Taça de Portugal 2018

Beira-Mar
Beira-Mar
FT
1 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
9/26/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Aveiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beira-Mar60%
×Draw20%
Oliveira Hospital20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beira-Mar
2.19
Oliveira Hospital
1.20

Beira-Mar creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beira-Mar
2.17
Oliveira Hospital
1.40

allows per match

Beira-Mar
1.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.20

finishing

Beira-Mar+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beira-Mar ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Beira-Mar or draw
80%
Beira-Mar or Oliveira Hospital
80%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
40%

Winning margin

Beira-Mar wins by 2+
37%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beira-Mar 1+ goals
89%
Beira-Mar 2+ goals
64%
Beira-Mar 3+ goals
37%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
70%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
34%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beira-Mar (draw refunded)
75%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beira-Mar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beira-Mar attack 2.17 + Oliveira Hospital defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.19

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.40 + Beira-Mar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Beira-Mar scores more
60%
level
20%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
20%

Beira-Mar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Beira-Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beira-Mar vs Oliveira Hospital

Beira-Mar beat Oliveira Hospital 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aveiro in Aveiro.