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Beira-Mar vs Maritimo — Taça de Portugal 2018

Beira-Mar
Beira-Mar
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maritimo
Maritimo
I. Cisse 90'
J. Caminata 15'
J. Zainadine 83'
D. Maeda 69'
10/20/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Aveiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beira-Mar44%
×Draw23%
Maritimo33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beira-Mar
1.75
Maritimo
1.50

Beira-Mar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Beira-Mar
2.17
Maritimo
2.00

allows per match

Beira-Mar
1.00
Maritimo
1.33

finishing

Beira-Mar+0.00on par
Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beira-Mar ↓

Maritimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beira-Mar or draw
67%
Beira-Mar or Maritimo
77%
Draw or Maritimo
56%

Winning margin

Beira-Mar wins by 2+
23%
Maritimo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beira-Mar 1+ goals
83%
Beira-Mar 2+ goals
52%
Beira-Mar 3+ goals
25%
Maritimo 1+ goals
78%
Maritimo 2+ goals
44%
Maritimo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beira-Mar (draw refunded)
57%
Maritimo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beira-Mar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Maritimo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beira-Mar attack 2.17 + Maritimo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Maritimo attack 2.00 + Beira-Mar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beira-Mar scores more
44%
level
23%
Maritimo scores more
33%

Beira-Mar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beira-Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Caminata
69'
D. Maeda
83'
J. Zainadine
90'
I. Cisse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beira-Mar vs Maritimo

Beira-Mar and Maritimo drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2019.

Goals: J. Caminata (15'), D. Maeda (69'), J. Zainadine (83'), I. Cisse (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aveiro in Aveiro.