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Beijing Renhe vs Sichuan Jiuniu — League One 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
11/4/2020League OneLeague One · Relegation Round - 4Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beijing Renhe34%
×Draw25%
Sichuan Jiuniu41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.35
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.49

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 57 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.88
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.23

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.75
Sichuan Jiuniu
0.82

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
59%
Beijing Renhe or Sichuan Jiuniu
75%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
66%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
15%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
74%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
39%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
15%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
77%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
44%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
46%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
34%
level
25%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
41%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Renhe vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Beijing Renhe beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 in League One on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.