Beijing Renhe 2–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shenzhen Ruby FC

4/20/2019

Super League · Round 6Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe45%

×Draw24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.38

Beijing Renhe

1.71

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.38

Beijing Renhe creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 67 away

1.17

creates per match

1.03

1.73

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.17

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.03

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.73

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

69%

Beijing Renhe or Shenzhen Ruby FC

76%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

55%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

82%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

51%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

75%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

40%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

59%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

45%

level

24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

31%

Beijing Renhe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff