Beijing Renhe 2–3 Shenyang Urban: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Shenyang Urban

10/29/2020

League One · Relegation Round - 2Wuhua People's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beijing Renhe44%

×Draw24%

Shenyang Urban32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchShenyang Urban

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.39

Beijing Renhe

1.65

Shenyang Urban

1.39

Beijing Renhe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 86 away

1.88

creates per match

1.03

1.75

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.88

Shenyang Urban

1.03

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.75

Shenyang Urban

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Shenyang Urban →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

68%

Beijing Renhe or Shenyang Urban

76%

Draw or Shenyang Urban

56%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

22%

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

81%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

49%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

23%

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals

75%

Shenyang Urban 2+ goals

40%

Shenyang Urban 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

57%

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

44%

level

24%

Shenyang Urban scores more

32%

Beijing Renhe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff