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Beijing Renhe vs Shanghai SIPG — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shanghai SIPG
Shanghai SIPG
11/27/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe24%
×Draw23%
Shanghai SIPG53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.14
Shanghai SIPG
1.81

Shanghai SIPG creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 122 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Shanghai SIPG
1.90

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Shanghai SIPG
1.10

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Shanghai SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Shanghai SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
47%
Beijing Renhe or Shanghai SIPG
77%
Draw or Shanghai SIPG
76%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
9%
Shanghai SIPG wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
68%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
32%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
11%
Shanghai SIPG 1+ goals
84%
Shanghai SIPG 2+ goals
54%
Shanghai SIPG 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
31%
Shanghai SIPG (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Shanghai SIPG away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Shanghai SIPG defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Shanghai SIPG attack 1.90 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
24%
level
23%
Shanghai SIPG scores more
53%

Shanghai SIPG at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shanghai SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Renhe 1–1 Shanghai SIPG

Beijing Renhe and Shanghai SIPG drew 1-1 in Super League on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.