Beijing Renhe 1–2 Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Beijing Renhe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

9/23/2020

League One · Round 4Shuangliu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beijing Renhe45%

×Draw23%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchNei Mongol Zhongyou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.45

Beijing Renhe

1.75

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.45

Beijing Renhe creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

1.88

creates per match

1.15

1.75

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.88

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.15

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.75

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

68%

Beijing Renhe or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

77%

Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

55%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

24%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

83%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

52%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

25%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals

77%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals

42%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

58%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.15 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

45%

level

23%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more

32%

Beijing Renhe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff