Beijing Renhe 0–2 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hebei Zhongji

9/16/2018

Super League · Round 22Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe47%

×Draw23%

Hebei Zhongji29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.33

Beijing Renhe

1.75

Hebei Zhongji

1.33

Beijing Renhe creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 67 away

1.17

creates per match

0.94

1.73

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.17

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.73

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

71%

Beijing Renhe or Hebei Zhongji

77%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

53%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

25%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

83%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

52%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

25%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

74%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

38%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

62%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

47%

level

23%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

29%

Beijing Renhe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff