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Beijing Renhe vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
8/4/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe38%
×Draw25%
Chongqing Lifan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.48
Chongqing Lifan
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 50 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
62%
Beijing Renhe or Chongqing Lifan
75%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
62%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
18%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
43%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
19%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
77%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
43%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
50%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
38%
level
25%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
38%

Beijing Renhe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Renhe vs Chongqing Lifan

Beijing Renhe and Chongqing Lifan drew 1-1 in Super League on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.