Beijing Guoan 3–0 Shenzhen Ruby FC: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shenzhen Ruby FC

5/12/2019

Super League · Round 9Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Beijing Guoan63%

×Draw19%

Shenzhen Ruby FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.09

Beijing Guoan

2.25

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.09

Beijing Guoan creates 106% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 67 away

2.25

creates per match

1.03

1.16

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.25

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.03

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.16

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

83%

Beijing Guoan or Shenzhen Ruby FC

81%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

37%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

40%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

89%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

65%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

39%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

66%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

30%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

78%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

63%

level

19%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

17%

Beijing Guoan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff