Beijing Guoan 0–1 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jeonbuk Motors

5/7/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Beijing Guoan28%

×Draw24%

Jeonbuk Motors48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.73

Beijing Guoan

1.26

Jeonbuk Motors

1.73

Jeonbuk Motors creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

1.20

creates per match

1.77

1.70

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

1.20

Jeonbuk Motors

1.77

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.70

Jeonbuk Motors

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

52%

Beijing Guoan or Jeonbuk Motors

76%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

72%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

12%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

72%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

36%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

13%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

82%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

52%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

37%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

28%

level

24%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

48%

Jeonbuk Motors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff