Beijing Guoan 1–1 Henan Jianye: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Henan Jianye

Guga 41'

Iago Maidana 45+1'

11/2/2024

Super League · Round 30Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Beijing Guoan49%

×Draw23%

Henan Jianye28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.29

Beijing Guoan

1.79

Henan Jianye

1.29

Beijing Guoan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

2.04

creates per match

1.42

1.17

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.04

Henan Jianye

1.42

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.17

Henan Jianye

1.54

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.25scores more

Henan Jianye-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

72%

Beijing Guoan or Henan Jianye

77%

Draw or Henan Jianye

51%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

27%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

83%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

53%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

26%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

72%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

37%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

64%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 31 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.04 + Henan Jianye defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

Henan Jianye attack 1.42 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

49%

level

23%

Henan Jianye scores more

28%

Beijing Guoan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Guga

Beijing Guoan · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Hao FangGoal cancelled

33'

Hao Fang

41'

Guga

45+1'

Iago Maidana↳ Bruno Nazário

46'

Yang Liyu← Fang Hao

69'

Liu Yixin← Yang Yilin

69'

Yeljan Shinar← Ding Haifeng

74'

Li Ke← Zhang Yuan

74'

Yu Dabao← Chi Zhongguo

79'

Gu Cao← Đ. Denić

81'

Zhang Yuning← Lin Liangming

85'

Iago Maidana

89'

Du Zhixuan← Yeljan Shinar

89'

Huang Zichang← F. Acheampong

90+3'

90+4'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingHenan

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots20

1.65Expected Goals (xG)1.75

10Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots20

7On Target4

5Off Target5

5Blocked11

13Inside Box15

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

510Total Passes367

455Accurate Passes304

89%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4

Super League: Beijing Guoan 1–1 Henan Jianye

Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in Super League on November 2, 2024.

Goals: Guga (41'), Iago Maidana (45+1').

Beijing Guoan controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 20.

The match was played at Workers' Stadium in Beijing.

Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: Beijing Guoan 1–1 Henan Jianye