Beijing Guoan 2–0 Hangzhou Greentown

Beijing Guoan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

Leung Nok-Hang 56' (OG)

F. Abreu 21'

4/6/2025

Super League · Round 5Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Beijing Guoan47%

×Draw23%

Hangzhou Greentown30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.39

Beijing Guoan

1.81

Hangzhou Greentown

1.39

Beijing Guoan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

2.04

creates per match

1.61

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.04

Hangzhou Greentown

1.61

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.17

Hangzhou Greentown

1.57

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.25scores more

Hangzhou Greentown-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

70%

Beijing Guoan or Hangzhou Greentown

77%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

53%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

26%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

84%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

54%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

27%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

75%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

40%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

61%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 31 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.04 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.61 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

47%

level

23%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

30%

Beijing Guoan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Abreu

Beijing Guoan · F

8.6

Match Events

21'

F. Abreu

46'

Leung Nok-Hang← Tong Lei

56'

Leung Nok-HangOwn goal

59'

Wang Yudong

61'

F. Andrijasevic← D. Owusu-Sekyere

67'

Yuning Zhang

70'

Lin Liangming← Li Lei

70'

Yang Liyu← Cao Yongjing

70'

Wang Ziming← Zhang Yuning

79'

Fan Shuangjie← M. Ngadeu

80'

Huo Shenping← Zhao Bo

85'

Chi Zhongguo← Serginho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingHangzhou

Overview

59%Possession41%

26Total Shots8

3.83Expected Goals (xG)0.81

10Corners8

10Fouls9

Shots

26Total Shots8

11On Target2

12Off Target3

3Blocked3

21Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

498Total Passes337

416Accurate Passes246

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides8