Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beijing Baxy vs Zibo Cuju — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
9/5/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 9Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Beijing Baxy47%
×Draw25%
Zibo Cuju27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.54
Zibo Cuju
1.10

Beijing Baxy creates 40% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.37
Zibo Cuju
1.06

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.14
Zibo Cuju
1.71

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Zibo Cuju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
73%
Beijing Baxy or Zibo Cuju
75%
Draw or Zibo Cuju
53%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
24%
Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
79%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
45%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
20%
Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
67%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
30%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
64%
Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.37 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
47%
level
25%
Zibo Cuju scores more
27%

Beijing Baxy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Baxy vs Zibo Cuju

Beijing Baxy beat Zibo Cuju 3-0 in League One on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3 in Wuhan.