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Beijing Baxy vs Yanbian Tigers FC — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Yanbian Tigers FC
Yanbian Tigers FC
5/9/2018League OneLeague One · Round 10Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium (Beijing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Beijing Baxy43%
×Draw28%
Yanbian Tigers FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.29
Yanbian Tigers FC
1.01

Beijing Baxy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Yanbian Tigers FC
0.87

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Yanbian Tigers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
71%
Beijing Baxy or Yanbian Tigers FC
72%
Draw or Yanbian Tigers FC
57%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
19%
Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
72%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
37%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
14%
Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals
64%
Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals
27%
Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
60%
Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Yanbian Tigers FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 0.87 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
43%
level
28%
Yanbian Tigers FC scores more
29%

Beijing Baxy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 2–3 Yanbian Tigers FC

Yanbian Tigers FC beat Beijing Baxy 3-2 in League One on May 9, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium (Beijing).