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Beijing Baxy vs Wuhan Zall — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
4/15/2018League OneLeague One · Round 6Beijing National Stadium (Beijing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Beijing Baxy31%
×Draw26%
Wuhan Zall43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.19
Wuhan Zall
1.44

Wuhan Zall creates 21% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Wuhan Zall
1.73

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Wuhan Zall
1.00

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Wuhan Zall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
57%
Beijing Baxy or Wuhan Zall
74%
Draw or Wuhan Zall
69%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
13%
Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
70%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
33%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
12%
Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
76%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
42%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
42%
Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Wuhan Zall attack 1.73 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
31%
level
26%
Wuhan Zall scores more
43%

Wuhan Zall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Baxy vs Wuhan Zall

Beijing Baxy and Wuhan Zall drew 1-1 in League One on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing National Stadium (Beijing).