Beijing Baxy 0–1 Wuhan Three Towns: Result & Stats

Beijing Baxy

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

9/26/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 14Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Beijing Baxy25%

×Draw25%

Wuhan Three Towns50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing BaxyExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.57

Beijing Baxy

1.02

Wuhan Three Towns

1.57

Wuhan Three Towns creates 54% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

2.00

1.15

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Beijing Baxy

1.39

Wuhan Three Towns

2.00

allows per match

Beijing Baxy

1.15

Wuhan Three Towns

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw

50%

Beijing Baxy or Wuhan Three Towns

75%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

75%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

9%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

64%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

27%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

8%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

79%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

46%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

33%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.02

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.00 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more

25%

level

25%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

50%

Wuhan Three Towns at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff