Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beijing Baxy vs Taizhou Yuanda — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Taizhou Yuanda
Taizhou Yuanda
9/23/2020League OneLeague One · Round 4Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Beijing Baxy39%
×Draw28%
Taizhou Yuanda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.26
Taizhou Yuanda
1.15

Beijing Baxy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 7 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Taizhou Yuanda
1.14

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Taizhou Yuanda
1.14

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Taizhou Yuanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
66%
Beijing Baxy or Taizhou Yuanda
72%
Draw or Taizhou Yuanda
61%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
17%
Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
72%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
36%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
13%
Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals
68%
Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals
32%
Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
54%
Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Taizhou Yuanda away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Taizhou Yuanda attack 1.14 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
39%
level
28%
Taizhou Yuanda scores more
34%

Beijing Baxy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Baxy vs Taizhou Yuanda

Taizhou Yuanda beat Beijing Baxy 2-0 in League One on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium in Chengdu.