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Beijing Baxy vs Sichuan Longfor — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
8/10/2019League OneLeague One · Round 21Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Beijing Baxy52%
×Draw24%
Sichuan Longfor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.76
Sichuan Longfor
1.11

Beijing Baxy creates 59% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Sichuan Longfor
1.07

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Sichuan Longfor
2.13

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Sichuan Longfor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
76%
Beijing Baxy or Sichuan Longfor
76%
Draw or Sichuan Longfor
48%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
29%
Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
83%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
52%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
26%
Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
67%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
30%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
69%
Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Sichuan Longfor away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Sichuan Longfor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.07 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
52%
level
24%
Sichuan Longfor scores more
24%

Beijing Baxy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 5–3 Sichuan Longfor

Beijing Baxy beat Sichuan Longfor 5-3 in League One on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Beijing.