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Beijing Baxy vs Qingdao Youth Island — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
7/27/2022League OneLeague One · Round 11Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Beijing Baxy38%
×Draw27%
Qingdao Youth Island34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.26
Qingdao Youth Island
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 32 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Qingdao Youth Island
1.19

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Qingdao Youth Island
1.13

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
66%
Beijing Baxy or Qingdao Youth Island
73%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
62%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
17%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
72%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
36%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
13%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
69%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
33%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
53%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.19 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
38%
level
27%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
34%

Beijing Baxy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beijing Baxy 2 – 2 Qingdao Youth Island

Beijing Baxy and Qingdao Youth Island drew 2-2 in League One on July 27, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.