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Beijing Baxy vs Chengdu Better City — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
10/3/2020League OneLeague One · Round 7Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Beijing Baxy25%
×Draw24%
Chengdu Better City50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.11
Chengdu Better City
1.66

Chengdu Better City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 24 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Chengdu Better City
2.17

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Chengdu Better City
0.83

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
50%
Beijing Baxy or Chengdu Better City
76%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
75%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
10%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
67%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
30%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
10%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
81%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
49%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
34%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Chengdu Better City attack 2.17 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
25%
level
24%
Chengdu Better City scores more
50%

Chengdu Better City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 0–1 Chengdu Better City

Chengdu Better City beat Beijing Baxy 1-0 in League One on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.