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Beijing Baxy vs BIT — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BIT
BIT
8/5/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 6Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Beijing Baxy61%
×Draw22%
BIT17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.88
BIT
0.89

Beijing Baxy creates 111% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 35 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
BIT
0.63

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
BIT
2.37

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
BIT+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

BIT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
83%
Beijing Baxy or BIT
78%
Draw or BIT
39%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
36%
BIT wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
85%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
56%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
29%
BIT 1+ goals
59%
BIT 2+ goals
22%
BIT 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
78%
BIT (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

BIT away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + BIT defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.88

BIT attack 0.63 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
61%
level
22%
BIT scores more
17%

Beijing Baxy at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 0–1 BIT

BIT beat Beijing Baxy 1-0 in League One on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.