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Beerschot VA vs Yverdon Sport — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
CANC
10:30
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
1/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beerschot VA20%
×Draw26%
Yverdon Sport54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
0.80
Yverdon Sport
1.50

Yverdon Sport creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.40
Yverdon Sport
2.20

allows per match

Beerschot VA
0.80
Yverdon Sport
0.20

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
46%
Beerschot VA or Yverdon Sport
74%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
80%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
6%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
55%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
19%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
5%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
78%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
44%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
27%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.40 + Yverdon Sport defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.80

Yverdon Sport attack 2.20 + Beerschot VA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
20%
level
26%
Yverdon Sport scores more
54%

Yverdon Sport at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beerschot VA face Yverdon Sport (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Beerschot VA hosting Yverdon Sport. Match starts January 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.