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Beerschot VA vs Verl — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
2 – 1
Verl
Verl
6/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beerschot VA43%
×Draw23%
Verl34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.70
Verl
1.50

Beerschot VA creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.40
Verl
2.20

allows per match

Beerschot VA
0.80
Verl
2.00

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
Verl+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Verl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
66%
Beerschot VA or Verl
77%
Draw or Verl
57%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
22%
Verl wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
82%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
51%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
24%
Verl 1+ goals
78%
Verl 2+ goals
44%
Verl 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
56%
Verl (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Verl away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.40 + Verl defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Verl attack 2.20 + Beerschot VA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
43%
level
23%
Verl scores more
34%

Beerschot VA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beerschot VA vs Verl

Beerschot VA beat Verl 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.