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Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
2 – 0
SK Beveren
SK Beveren
7/7/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion De Visputten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beerschot VA44%
×Draw22%
SK Beveren34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.91
SK Beveren
1.65

Beerschot VA creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.40
SK Beveren
2.50

allows per match

Beerschot VA
0.80
SK Beveren
2.42

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

SK Beveren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
66%
Beerschot VA or SK Beveren
78%
Draw or SK Beveren
56%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
24%
SK Beveren wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
85%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
57%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
30%
SK Beveren 1+ goals
81%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
49%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
57%
SK Beveren (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.40 + SK Beveren defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.91

SK Beveren attack 2.50 + Beerschot VA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
44%
level
22%
SK Beveren scores more
34%

Beerschot VA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Beerschot VA 2–0 SK Beveren

Beerschot VA beat SK Beveren 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion De Visputten in Hoboken.