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Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden — League #145 2026

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Patro Eisden
Patro Eisden
L. Bamona 83'
4/19/2024League #145League #145 · Round 30Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beerschot VA28%
×Draw29%
Patro Eisden43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
0.94
Patro Eisden
1.25

Patro Eisden creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.38
Patro Eisden
1.50

allows per match

Beerschot VA
1.00
Patro Eisden
0.50

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
Patro Eisden+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Patro Eisden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
57%
Beerschot VA or Patro Eisden
71%
Draw or Patro Eisden
72%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
10%
Patro Eisden wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
61%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
24%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
7%
Patro Eisden 1+ goals
71%
Patro Eisden 2+ goals
36%
Patro Eisden 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
39%
Patro Eisden (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Patro Eisden away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.38 + Patro Eisden defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Patro Eisden attack 1.50 + Beerschot VA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
28%
level
29%
Patro Eisden scores more
43%

Patro Eisden at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Patro Eisden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
M. WeymansBeerschot VABeerschot VA · M
8.2

Match Events

60'
Yassin Gueroui
68'
D. Huiberts← W. Cagro
69'
C. Keita← T. Reyners
69'
S. Sigurðarson← M. Noubissi
69'
L. Bamona← L. Van Eenoo
70'
Tom Pietermaat
73'
Wouter Corstjens
76'
Mardochee Nzita
81'
S. Michez← T. Verlinden
83'
L. Bamona
86'
I. Alhassan← H. Matthys
86'
T. Pierrot← S. Peeters

Possession

72%Beerschot

Shots

8Beerschot

Pass accuracy

57%Beerschot

Statistics

BeerschotPatro
Overview
72%Possession28%
8Total Shots15
3Corners5
14Fouls18
Shots
8Total Shots15
1On Target8
4Off Target5
3Blocked2
2Inside Box10
6Outside Box5
Passing
72%Possession28%
679Total Passes258
593Accurate Passes170
87%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls18
1Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Beerschot VA vs Patro Eisden

Patro Eisden beat Beerschot VA 1-0 in League #145 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: L. Bamona (83').

Beerschot VA controlled possession (72%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Olympisch Stadion in Anvers.